• All eyes on the pound in the coming days

• The dollar holds steady amid ongoing demand

What Moved the Markets Last Week?

The US dollar extended its winning streak for a third consecutive session, driving EUR/USD to its lowest point since August and pushing GBP/USD to a six-month low. The Dollar Index edged up 0.1%, adding to a 1.7% monthly gain, as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials—including Dallas Fed’s Logan—bolstered expectations that policymakers may pause after this week’s anticipated rate cut.

In Asia, the Japanese yen gained some support after Tokyo inflation and industrial output exceeded forecasts, prompting renewed government concern over currency weakness. Across Europe, inflation in the eurozone eased but stayed above the ECB’s target, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold, while French CPI declined further. Meanwhile, the British pound remained under pressure amid growing speculation that the Bank of England could deliver a rate cut next week.

The U.S. government shutdown continues to delay the release of official labour data, leaving markets to rely on private sector estimates, which point to modest October job growth of around 30,000–60,000 and a slight rise in unemployment to roughly 4.5%. Attention will also be on today’s ISM manufacturing data, which is expected to improve slightly to 49.5, supported by stronger new orders and rising input costs.

In Canada, employment figures for October are projected to show a decline of about 25,000 jobs, with trade tensions weighing on hiring and the unemployment rate likely edging up to 7.2%. However, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut is expected to provide some medium-term relief for the labour market.

On the central bank front, the Bank of England is widely anticipated to keep rates steady at 4% during Thursday’s meeting. That said, a shift in voting patterns could indicate growing support for an early rate cut, with Barclays and Goldman Sachs both suggesting a surprise cut is possible. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to hold rates at 3.6%, following stronger-than-expected Q3 inflation, which has dampened expectations for near-term easing.

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