• • UK currency outlook hinges on upcoming comments from Reeves.
  • The countdown to a potential government closure is on.

What Moved the Markets Last Week?

• Inflation Update: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, was released on Friday, holding steady at 2.9% for August—right in line with market expectations.
• Currency Movement: The US Dollar (USD) lost ground heading into the weekend, as investor sentiment was dampened by the increasing possibility of a US government shutdown.

Q3 Ends Under the Shadow of a US Government Shutdown

This week is stacked with market-moving events, but the primary focus is squarely on Washington, D.C.

The looming October 1st US government shutdown deadline is not just a political headache—it’s a major market risk. The most immediate impact for investors is a potential delay to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and other official data. A data blackout would leave markets guessing about the true health of the US economy.

What to Watch if a Shutdown is Averted:

US Jobs Picture: Before Friday’s NFP (if released), we’ll look to Tuesday’s JOLTs Job Openings data and weekly jobless claims for hints on hiring and firing trends.

Business Sentiment: Manufacturing and Services ISM reports (Wednesday and Friday) will reveal whether business activity is expanding or contracting as we enter the fourth quarter.

Key Global Events: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets Tuesday, with rates expected to remain stable. Separately, the Eurozone inflation figures on Wednesday are expected to show a small uptick due to statistical “base effects.” Finally, UK investors will watch the Labour Party Conference for any impactful new policy announcements.

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